Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
